HOW TO MANUFACTURE A MIGRANT CRISIS
Belarus, state-sponsored terrorism, and an unexpected migrant crisis on the Eastern EU border. 
Adapted Presentation for “Migration and International Justice”, Prof. Olivia Hamill, March 2024.
1. BE AUTHORITARIAN







and repress personal and political freedoms.
The crisis started with the 2020 Belarussian presidential elections, widely criticized for alleged electoral fraud favoring long-time president Aleksandr Lukashenko. The results sparked massive protests across the country, with demonstrators demanding fair elections and democratic reforms. Lukashenko's government responded with a severe crackdown, involving police violence, censorship of opposition voices, and arrests of opposition figures. The most prominent two cases of the crackdown are Roman Protasevich and Krystsina Tsimanouskaya.

During the 2020 Tokyo Olympics (which took place in 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic), Belarussian sprinter Krystsina Tsimanouskaya publicly criticized her team's coaches on social media for having signed her up for a category other than the one she was training to compete in. Following this, she was taken to Tokyo's Haneda Airport by Belarussian officials, who attempted to put her on a flight to Minsk against her will. Tsimanouskaya sought refuge at the airport and was able later on to receive a humanitarian visa from Poland, where she now competes. The incident drew international condemnation and raised concerns about political repression in Belarus.

The bigger case took place onboard Ryanair Flight 4978 from Athens to Vilnius, which was forcibly diverted to Minsk under the pretext of a bomb threat by Hamas (which was not substantiated by the Belarussian military and later was shown to be false). Belarussian authorities used the diversion as a tactic to detain journalist and opposition activist Roman Protasevich, who was onboard with his partner. Protasevich, the editor of the opposition Telegram channel Nexta and a prominent critic of Lukashenko's regime, faced charges of extremism-related offenses and was sentenced to eight years of prison, subsequently being pardoned in 2023 by Lukashenko.

2. BE SANCTIONED
    by the European Union for being authoritarian.
    In response to the arrest of Protasevich, the European Union swiftly implemented a series of sanctions targeting Belarus, the most important of which was restricted access to EU airspace and airports for Belarussian airlines, banning the sale of dual-use equipment and technology, as well as travel bans, asset freezes for members of the Lukashenko government.
    3. DECLARE THREATS 
      to flood Europe with migrants and drugs.

      As the title says, Lukashenko, in response to the sanctions by the European Union, promised to flood Europe with migrants and drugs, and stated that if the economic blockade persists, Belarus will “substitute Europe, which is growing mercilessly old, for rapidly growing Asia”. Until that point, according to data on detections of illegal crossings from the EU’s external borders by Frontex, the eastern borders migratory route (which includes not only the Belarus-EU border but also those of Russia and Ukraine) was the least used route of entry to the European Union, with only 677 detected crossings in 2020.
      4. FIND THE MIGRANTS
        and find a way to bring them to Belarus.
        The migrants that Lukashenko wanted to let cross into the EU were from many different nationalities; Afghanistan, DRC, Somalia, India, Bangladesh, and Eritrea, but the bulk of them came from Syria, a country plagued by a decade-long civil war and an exacerbated economic crisis, and Iraq, which is still reeling from the effects of the US invasion in 2003, the ensuing insurgency, the rise and fall of ISIL, and most importantly, the persecution of religious and ethnic minorities such as Kurds and Yezidis.
        5. FACILITATE LINKS


          by increasing flights between Baghdad, Damascus and Minsk, and easing visa requirements.
          By mid-summer 2021, reports surfaced indicating that Iraqi and Belarussian travel agencies organized "tourist trips" to Belarus at significantly reduced prices, such as "hunting tours" exempt from the Belarussian COVID-19 restrictions. Belarussian visa rules were also relaxed in August, allowing citizens of Middle Eastern countries to obtain a Belarussian visa upon arrival in Minsk. Concurrently, there was a notable increase in the number of flights to Minsk, with Iraqi Airways and Belavia, Belarus's state-owned airline, doubling their flight frequencies. A majority of these flights were one-way; flights from Baghdad to Minsk carried a considerably larger number of passengers compared to flights in the opposite direction. Additionally, Iraqi Airways announced new direct flights to Minsk from Basra, Erbil, and Sulaymaniyah, while the Syrian ‘Cham Wings Airlines’ launched daily flights from Damascus to Minsk.
          6. BENEFIT ECONOMICALLY


            by setting up crony agencies to handle the incoming migrants and exploit them financially.
            Agencies associated with the Lukashenko governments were granted special privileges, including the authority to issue visas and handle security measures in Minsk’s airport, and the price tag they were demanding from migrants was not cheap. Reports by Belarussian opposition activists quoted some of the prices that migrants had to pay to be facilitated access to Belarus:
            • Visa at Minsk airport: €180 (individual) – “€30” (group of 50-60)
            • Blank stamped visa forms: €30 (Olirti)
            • “No-documents” process: €2000 (Oskartur and Vizak)
            • Direct flight to Minsk: €2000 (Cham Wings, Iraqi Airways, Belavia)
            • SIM card at Minsk airport: €100
            • Exchange rate: 100 BYN = 100 EUR (real rate: 100 BYN = 28 EUR)
            • Full package: €12-15k
            There have also been reports that the agencies that operated in the Middle East were given the aforementioned special privileges, effectively blocking any Arab-founded agencies from receiving financial compensation and ensuring that the funds are funneled directly to the Belarussian government and its supporters.
            7. TURN A BLIND EYE


            to the migrants trying to cross into the EU, maybe help them even.

            After staying in Belarusian hotels for a few days, migrants were gathered and instructed to cross the border on foot, expecting transportation to Lithuania.  Migrants were allegedly tricked into believing that entering the European Union via Belarus was legal; the Polish government, for example, had encountered misinformation suggesting Poland had turned a blind eye to human trafficking, despite its’ illegality in Poland. Migrant were advised to destroy their passports to avoid deportation from the EU. Belarussian border guards were reported to be aiding migrants, as they were instructed to ignore undocumented migrants and halt communication with Lithuanian counterparts.  Various online groups offered assistance and advice for crossing the Belarus–Lithuania border, with videos showing people crossing fences on the Lithuanian side. Some smugglers involved in transporting migrants who crossed into the EU further westward, often to Germany, reportedly received payments from Belarus. 
            8. WATCH
              as Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania crack down on migrants very harshly.
              Migrants’ rights? None at all. The Polish, Latvian, and Lithuanian responses against migrants illegally crossing the border were very intense; essentially, all three countries declared a state of emergency either in the whole territory or in the administrative areas bordering Belarus, deployed police forces, either started or accelerated the construction of a border fence that covers the entire border, and declared that no migrant entering through Belarus will be given the chance to submit an asylum claim and will be deported back. Lithuania and Poland constructed makeshift camps that were characterized as unsanitary and barely meeting minimum habitation standards but were met with intense protests from local communities. The three countries were not equipped to deal with (relatively) large volumes of migrants, as they are not among the common destinations for migrants seeking to apply for asylum, and public opinion is very negative towards migrants with reports of xenophobic language being prevalent in the local press. The Lithuanian government at some point even attempted to contact Iraq directly to persuade them to halt flights (which did happen eventually).
              8. WASH YOUR HANDS CLEAN
                and say that migrants are Europe’s problem now.
                Belarussian border guards who helped migrants cross in the first place, refused to let them back in after they were deported from EU territory, and were forced to stay on the border. There were reports of migrants being beaten by border guards when attempting to return to their home countries, and some migrants who sought political asylum in Belarus were allegedly subjected to violence and forced expulsion by Belarussian police. Additionally,  Lukashenko stated that the Belarussian “position is clear and clear: we are not a septic tank. We will not catch anyone here. Moreover, you called them. Let them go”, and calling the actions of the EU countries “barbaric” for not allowing the migrants to enter their borders.

                Congratulations, you have just successfully manufactured a migrant crisis!
                A. STATISTICS
                of detections of illegal border crossings at the EU’s external borders between 2020 and 2021 (net change/percentage compared to 2020 levels)
                Overall 73678/+58↑

                Eastern Borders 7483/+1105↑

                Western Mediterranean 181/+1↑
                Western Africa 1736/-7↓
                Central  Mediterranean  32051/+89↑

                Eastern  Mediterranean  (Sea) 5271/-49↓
                Eastern  Mediterranean  (Land) 5563/+36↑
                Albania-Greece Circular 273/-20↓
                Western Balkan 34766/+128↑

                English Channel Outward (to UK) 36873/+240↑